In a country where fewer than 4% of children who start Grade 1 leave school with strong enough maths skills to pursue a maths or science degree, Numeric is making an impact that lasts. Since its inception in 2012, the organisation has been on a mission to transform mathematics education in South Africa, ensuring that Grade 6 and 7 learners from low-income areas build solid foundations in the subject. Now, a recent longitudinal study conducted by researcher Ros Clayton provides compelling evidence of the long-term benefits of Numeric’s after-school maths programme – benefits that extend all the way to matric.

The power of data: Measuring Numeric’s impact

The study evaluated the programme’s impact on critical academic milestones such as matric pass rates, Bachelor’s pass rates, subject selection, and dropout rates. Using a combination of a 2013 randomised control trial (RCT) and a larger 2014-2018 pooled sample, the study paints a clear picture: Numeric learners are more likely to reach matric, pass their exams, and take higher-level maths and science subjects.

Researcher Ros Clayton explains, “The great thing about an RCT is that it allows us to make direct comparisons between Numeric learners and non-Numeric learners who had similar backgrounds and academic abilities before entering the programme. What we see is a significant, measurable impact that persists long after the learners complete Grade 7.”

The RCT, often considered the gold standard in programme evaluation, found that Numeric participants were 23% more likely to pass matric and 233% more likely to achieve 60% or higher in Mathematics. The larger pooled sample, which controlled for baseline maths abilities, confirmed these findings, showing that Numeric learners were:

24% more likely to reach matric

33% more likely to pass matric

40% more likely to achieve a Bachelor’s pass

59% more likely to take Mathematics as a matric subject

61% more likely to pass Mathematics at 30% or higher

More than just numbers…

While the statistics are impressive, the real impact of Numeric goes beyond the numbers. Clayton suggests that motivation and confidence play a crucial role; “One of the most striking aspects of the study was the reduced dropout rates among Numeric learners. This suggests that the programme isn’t just improving maths skills – it’s instilling a sense of perseverance and self-belief that keeps learners in school.”

Previous research has shown that students who perform well in maths tend to develop greater academic confidence, which in turn fuels their drive to succeed in other subjects. The study found that Numeric learners also performed better in Mathematical Literacy, Physical Science, Accounting, and English First Additional Language – subjects that are key to unlocking further study and career opportunities.

Future-forward

The study raises interesting questions about the long-term impact of early interventions like Numeric. Would these students continue to outperform their peers beyond matric? Would they enter STEM-related careers at higher rates? While more research is needed to track these learners into tertiary education and the workforce, Clayton believes the findings are a call to action: “Given how successful Numeric has been, perhaps expansion is the next logical step. Reaching more learners earlier and maintaining some level of engagement into high school could further amplify these results.”

She also points to potential opportunities for Numeric to collaborate with the Department of Basic Education (DBE): “Scaling up through summer schools or targeted interventions for retained learners could be game-changers. Many learners who repeat grades don’t receive any additional support, and a programme like Numeric could make a huge difference.”

The bottom line? Primary school intervention matters

This study underscores a fundamental truth: fixing South Africa’s mathematics crisis must start in primary school. Numeric’s after-school classes provide 100 additional hours of maths instruction in Grade 7, and the data shows that this intervention can alter a child’s entire academic trajectory. As Clayton puts it, “We cannot afford to wait until high school to intervene. By Grade 9, too many learners have already fallen behind. The earlier we start, the greater the impact.”

For every 100 learners who attend Numeric, an additional 12 stay in school, 13 pass matric, and 9 choose Mathematics as a matric subject. These are not just statistics ​​– they represent real children whose futures have been transformed by a single, well-executed programme. As South Africa grapples with its education challenges, Numeric’s success story is one that policymakers, educators, and funders alike should be paying attention to.